Round 1 (with explanations)

1.1   CLE – Sam Darnold, QB, USC:  Pretty much a forgone conclusion at this point...  Allen is a dark horse, especially with his Fancy-man wonderlic of 37 (Darnold 28 for comparison).   Hue likes a big-boy with a live arm… so there might be a little something there.  Hard to see the Brownies bailing on Sam, but they’ve defied conventional speculative wisdom at QB before.  As I edit this piece, I’m reading that the Browns are going to select Allen.  I’m leaving Darnold at 1.1... for now.         

1.2   NYG – Bradley Chubb, DE, NC ST:  JPP out and the O-line shored up (precluding OG Nelson), this one seems easy.  Rosen as the Dark Horse for this pick. 

1.3   NYJ – Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA:  Best thrower in the draft, health is the biggest concern on Rosen.  Has the attitude to be a QB for this team (someone make my year and send this kid a fur coat for the sideline). 

1.4   CLE – Saquon Barkley, RB, PENN ST:  This pick should come down to Nelson or Barkley (with Chubb off the board).  Browns have a good O-line.  Seems like Barkley has the greater overall offensive impact for this team.  Signing injury-riddled RB Hyde isn’t nearly reason enough not to draft Saquon. 

1.5   DEN – Baker Mayfield, QB, OK:  Beating out the ‘Local Boy’ Allen, Baker’s selection here comes down to stepping in for an instant impact.  The Broncos took the stud-but-project QB a couple years back and he’s about to be the 3^rd string QB.  Baker can play AKA deliver the ball to DT and Sanders reliably.

1.6   IND – Quenton Nelson, OG, ND:  Indy needs to protect Andrew Luck or take heat off him.  In the confines of this board, Nelson improves the line-play and run game.  Even if he isn’t a polished in pass-pro initially, increased ability to run the football gets the ball out of the QB’s hands quickly (and actually might produce a positive play while doing so [in case you don’t watch much Indy football]).  If Saquon is still on the board, his receiving ability more than warrants consideration.  Chubb makes sense on the defensive side, but I really don’t expect him to get past the Giants or Cleveland’s 1.4.

1.7   TB – Denzel Ward, CB, OH ST – Ward measured over 5’10 at the combine (mercifully – I had no idea where to slot him if he’d come in shorter) solidifying a higher pick in the draft.  Athletically he was always at that point.  Tampa doesn’t mind a high pick on a ‘not huge’ corner (Hargreaves: 11^th overall 2016; 5’11”), and the Bucs lack a long-term answer at CB1.  I’d personally rather pull the trigger on Derwin James, but the Bucs spent a decent amount of draft capital on a future SS last season in Justin Evans (50^th overall 2017).  They don’t need QB and the linebacking group looks good (Davis, Alexander, Beckwith@SLB).  Fitzpatrick should get a look, but FS isn’t an immediate need and with only 13 snaps at outside CB the transition play makes less sense.  7 also seems a little rich for Guice… That said I think he’s the other option given the Bucs’ need at RB, Tampa’s willingness to pick Tigahs (back to those LBs) and the fact that I’m maybe a little higher on Guice than you (dude is siacknessss).  ‘Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth,’ -Sir Arthur Conan Doyle.  Doesn’t take Sherlock see to why the Bucs might want another young CB behind a $10 million, 35-year-old #1 who missed 3 games last year (Grandaddy Grimes).  Not to mention locking in a pair of foundation CBs (assuming a bounce-back junior season from VH) for years to come. 

1.8   CHI – Roquan Smith, ILB, UGA:  Bears’ D overperformed last season, but that isn’t likely to happen again without a talent infusion (No? Ask the Rams about concerns over defensive regression.).  Enter a sideline-to-sideline stud LB.  Already a coverage maven.  Chiraq already has a couple nice young safeties in Amos and Eddie Jackson, so Derwin J doesn’t really make sense (and is the only rival for Roquan to be an instant dominant defender).  The Bears also have a good inside-the-tackles RB in Howard.  Tremaine Edmunds could be the pick, but his play is below Smith and looking up.  Love Edmunds physical traits for his size, but I don’t think he’s the immediate mismatch for offenses (Roquan already is that mismatch).    

1.9   SF – Derwin James, SS, FLA ST:  I finally get to take DJ off the board, and John Lynch gets to select a stud at his old spot.  James is an awesome athlete and I’m comfortable giving him every bit of the responsibility that The Game asks of a safety.  Big hole without Eric Reid, but James is an improvement on Reid’s same skill-set.  With Ward supposedly playing more CB this season Fitzpatrick makes sense as well, but I prefer Derwin to Minkah.  I’m fine with James covering the slot, so nothing lost there.  LB is a possibility as well, but the safety group needs more help than the linebackers assuming you believe the Niners are still straight with Reuben Foster. 

1.10           OAK – Minkah Fitzpatrick, FS, BAMA:  Free agency has seen Oakland lose a very good slot CB.  They play the Chargers and Chiefs twice a year, and Denver’s slot stands to improve with a healthy Carlos Henderson.   Fitzpatrick (off his own tongue) is most comfortable in the slot. Oakland has Marcus Gilchrist, but he’s an up-and-down player with a checkered injury history.  Linebacker could be the look here too… in fact this is the 1^st selection to really give pause.  Edmunds is a size/speed freak and you know the ghost of Al Davis is pulling for him.  But I figure the Raiders to re-sign Bowman.  Lastly, in case you hadn’t noticed, Reggie McKenzie likes taking DBs in the 1 (DJ Hayden, Karl Joseph, Gareon Conley).

1.11           MIA – Derrius Guice, RB, LSU – Party in the city where the heat is on, all night on the beach ‘til the break of dawn (Welcome to Miami, Bienvenido)… you get it.  With the majority of the QBs picked, the Dolphins make a strength out of a (currently) mixed-bag unit.  Drake isn’t an inside runner.  Is what it is.  I like Guice’s talent level for the draft slot, and I think he’ll make an instant impact for the ‘Phins.  With Fitzpatrick off the board, replacing Nate Allen isn’t possible excepting a significant reach.  Again, Edmunds must be mentioned as a possibility here, but it would seem like a waste to slot him at SLB given McMillan and Alonso (albeit both injury risks) have MLB and WLB sown up.  Miami has shown a lot of interest in Luke Falk, and I have them taking him in the 3^rd (which you already know because you’ve been keeping tabs on my 7-round mock).  Guice/Drake combo lets Miami lean on the run game, which you’d pretty much expect from Gase at this point.  As an aside I should probably mention that Frank Gore has made a career of beating my bets against him in fantasy, but Ol’ Padre Time will catch up sooner or later.  At this point I might as well double down. 

1.12           BUF – Josh Allen, QB, WYO:  Worth noting:  I don’t predict trades.  I get where these inferences can be made, but that’s a little too fantasy for my football analysis.  That being the case, the Bills at least manage to find a QB who can throw through their winter wind.  The Bills lack a starter right now, so this pick makes a ton of sense.  Receiver would be a consideration, but it’s a touch early for this class.  Vita Vea replacing Darius is another option, but in the NFL, QB > NT.  This LB group would demand a look at Edmunds if no QBs are available. 

1.13           WAS – Tremaine Edmunds, LB, VA TECH:  FINALLY THE ROCK HAS, sorry, Tremaine Edmunds comes off the board.  Martrell Spaight was what, the 141^st pick of his draft?  Talk about a dynamic duo inside, Zach Brown and Tremaine Edmunds would be filthy.  Again, Vea makes sense as well, but mixed evaluations make it difficult to call his name early.  I like him, I just don’t always hear the same abroad.  ‘Skins go with the local prospect. 

1.14           GB – Harold Landry, DE/OLB, BC:  Landry’s ’16 was better than his ’17, but he’s a major riser right now.  And with good reason.  Super-fast off the ball and bends the edge.  The Pack gets a real threat opposite Matthews.  Green Bay has a lot of needs, but they have a lot of picks too.  I’d like to give them an OT, but this seems too rich a draft slot for the kind of guy the Pack likes to take at tackle.

1.15           ARI – Lamar Jackson, QB, LOUISV:  Cardinal to Cardinal!  Another mixed bag in terms of evaluations, I really like the skillset that LJ brings to the table.  We’re talking about a guy who out-rushed Saquon Barkely.  I also think a bet against a healthy season from Sam Bradford is EASY MONEY (they play the Rams twice, c’mon now).  And in the unlikely event Bradford delivers a healthy season, Lamar gets to redshirt, which would probably be good for his development (although redshirts are a rarity for first rounders).  Form needs work, but the arm is there.  Deshaun Watson showed us what freezing the opposing defense for an extra second can give you.  Cards fixed up the line in the offseason or I’d be tempted to slot McGlinchey here. 

1.16           BAL – James Daniels, C/OG, IOWA:  Boy do I want to give the Ravens Ridley here, and while I’m a yuge fan of trending a drafter’s picks, ya gotta figure Ozzie self-scouts and doesn’t want to go 3 Tide in 5 years, even if for argument’s sake alone.  Plus, the Ravens worked to make strides in the receiver room.  The O-line is a liiiiiittle different story.  Seems Like Hurst/Lewis will solidify LG/RT.  But a potential issue might be Matt Skura at Center.  He wasn’t good at guard last season, but the argument I hear is that he’ll be better back at his college position.  And he does have 35+ inch arms if you want me to mention every positive.  Skura was an undrafted free agent who ran a 5.39” 40.  Just kind of screams replacement-level player.  The Ravens have a nice corps of RBs, but how do you improve their performance without drafting another runner?   I don’t think Baltimore’s running game has been the same since Matt Birk left some 5-odd years ago.  While that isn’t to say there haven’t been other challenges with personnel, it’s time to get some swagger back into that line (I’m doing everything I can to avoid saying smash-mouth here).  Enter James Daniels.  One of the youngest prospects in the draft is aces to pull or get to the 2^nd level as a run blocker.  BTW, he’s nails in pass pro too.  Nails and Aces in two sentences discussing different aspects of blocking go a long way to explain why Ozzie goes Iowan (San Diego-an? [gratuitous Anchorman reference]) over the wee wideout at 16. 

1.17           LAC – Mike McGlinchey, OT, ND:  Reading through the list, the Chargers have a decent line these days…. Okung, Feeney, Pouncey, Lamp… oh and replacement level RT Joe Barksdale.  One of these things is not like the other.  Health and skill has been a big issue for the Bolts’ lines in recent years.  Let’s give Big Phil a hand and protect both edges.  McGlinchey slides in at RT for a team that has used draft capital to overhaul its line heavily in the last few years.  Not to mention putting workhorse Melvin Gordon behind a complete line for the first time in his career. 

1.18           SEA – Maurice Hurst, DT, MICH:  As much as Frank Gore has made a career beating my bets on his early demise, John Schneider seems to be making one not drafting all the tackles I’ve mocked to him over the years.  You want more than my petty, vendetta-oriented draft assignments?  How about a defense that is going through a major rebuild.  And while the secondary might be the most obvious area of need out of the defensive units, who’s the upfield-disruptive 3-technique?  If you start talking about Nazair Jones we can’t be friends anymore.  Jarran Reed has the nose on lock, but Seattle needs disruption from the front 4, and Schneider has always liked a value pick.  Hurst delivers value in spades as a DT in the Aaron Donald mold.  Other options here could be Vea, Payne or Davenport.  Less Davenport IMO as the Seahawks have some edge pressure guys (a resurrected Dion Jordan and Frank Clark; Avril assuming he’s back).  You can find wave edge guys later in the draft.  Let’s get the Seahawks some pressure up the middle.  Sony Michel could be a dark horse here too, but the defense needs more help and Chris Carson's return will help the RB group. 

1.19           DAL – Courtland Sutton, WR, SMU:  Aaaaand here’s where I start rolling the dice on losing you, Dear Reader.  But hear me out on this.  Ridley is no doubt a stud with the best routes in the class.  I like the comparisons to Greg Jennings that I’ve been reading recently.  But what I’m reading also seems to indicate a more than significant chance that Dez Bryant parts ways with the Cowboys.  Dallas needs to replace a big, physical wideout (and one who happens to be the scoring-est red-zone WR in the history of the game [look up the percentages; I’ll wait]).  You could throw the lob up to Dez and let him go get it.  Sutton projects similarly, has the requisite size and speed, and he’s a local prospect to boot.  Lord knows there’s nothing people from Dallas like more than people from Dallas.  The Cowboys have been rumored to have big interest in Leighton Vander Esch, but it would seem foolish to ensure 9 and 10man fronts for Zeke.  No true outside WR threat will buy you another lost season with a quickness. 

1.20           DET – Da’Ron Payne, DT, BAMA: Another DT from BAMA in Motown?  You’re closing the browser window because I’m not sending Marcus Davenport back to his college coach.  If you didn’t bail on me for Sutton, hang on for another minute.  I’ll admit, I could see Davenport making sense here (maybe more than I’d like).  But I’ll also say that I could see Davenport needing some time to adjust to the NFL game, whereas Payne stepping in and wreaking havoc day 1 doesn’t seem so unreasonable.  He’s a tree-stump to move like A’Shawn (who he’d play next to in this scenario), but unlike A’Shawn, Payne offers interior rushing ability.  I don’t know if you watch college football, but it’s hard to run on Bama.  And they get pressure too. 

1.21           CIN – Marcus Davenport, DE/OLB, UTSA:  Alright, alright, alright.  We get to the big man from the small school in the big state.  If you know anything about Bengals drafting they have a fetish for height on the edge (Dunlap, Michael Johnson, Jordan Willis) worse than Dave Gettleman.  Ok, ok, that isn’t fair.  Nobody has a height fetish like Dave Gettleman.  The Bengals ought to sprint to the podium on this one.  They lack depth at edge rusher and (arguably) fixed LT by trading for Cordy Glenn.  We’re getting into the part of this year’s draft where the O-linemen are going to start making more sense from a value-to-draft-spot perspective, so that wouldn’t be a surprise.  Ridley is still on the board, and it sure would be fun to see him working across from AJ.  Vea should also be a consideration, although the Bungles have Andrew Billings to slide in next to Geno.

1.22           BUF – Sony Michel, RB, UGA:  I may be alone here, but I think Michel has more than enough talent to be a first rounder, and it’s clear on his tape.  Not even an argument IMO.  Bit of a weird selection here in that I think this pick is likely traded for the Bills to move up and get a QB.  But as stated in the 1.12 write-up, I don’t predict trades.  So, why Sony?  I’ll rather impolitely answer your question with another question, how long are the Bills going to run Shady as hard as they do with no real backup?  Don’t start talking to me about Chris Ivory either.  He’ll fall apart under that workload in half the time.  Enter Sony Michel, who has great balance and vision (hell Alfred Morris has made a career and that’s all he has).  Michel has the play-speed to break big runs.  Players in The League that have that speed combined with balance to keep their feet after contact and vision to boot… you’re catching up with me, aren’t you?  He’s good in the passing game, and you can work him as a returner while you wait for Shady to throw a wheel.  Michel added muscle though his college career without losing speed.  High fumble rate is a minus, but if he was perfect he wouldn’t last until 22.  The argument against him here is that the Bills have line needs and a player, maybe Wynn, who could help at guard or tackle might be more of a necessity.  This team runs the football as a foundation of the offense.  If the scheme relies on it, I’d call RB a necessity. 

1.23           LAR – Leighton Vander Esch, ILB, BOISE ST:  What do you give the man who has everything?  The off-season has certainly been exciting if you’re a Rams fan.  Adding Peters and Talib essentially precludes drafting a CB.  Like-wise DT with the one-year Suh rental.  The Rams may not even ultimately have this pick if a trade for OBJ materializes.  Given the adds… what do the Lambs really need?  Depth at offensive tackle is an answer (Whitworth is next level, but not exactly young by any stretch of the imagination), if not the most pressing.  But, does one draft backups when shooting for a Superbowl run?  Doubtful.  The immediate positions of need are Inside and Outside Linebacker.  As much as I’d love to see Arden Key facing single teams off the edge in Wade’s one-gap, it’s that one-gap system in itself that devalues the edge rusher position (even if only slightly).  You can find guys to rotate in and fire off the edge with only one gap’s worth of responsibility.  Maximizing value (and availability) Vander Esch is the pick for this LA team.  He’s instinctive and a good mover to boot.  He tore up the combine.  The guy tested as a 96th percentile athlete compared to current NFL linebackers per Three Sigma Athlete.  Green Bay and Dallas are rumored to have major interest, so he may not be available come the 23^rd pick in the actual draft.  But for mine own part, I can’t help imagining an opposing running back implausibly squirting through a hole in that d-line just to get smashed by the fast-closing Bronco ‘Backer.        

1.24           CAR – Josh Jackson, CB, IOWA:  Our second Iowean, Iowin… (ok, I’m done) of the first round.  Carolina has a few holes, so I get arguments for other players in this spot too.  But Ron Rivera’s successful squads have always had stout defenses.  A ball-hawking CB would definitely be a big addition to this unit.  Jackson had 8 picks (led FBS) and 20 breakups last season.  A bit slow at the combine with a 4.56” 40, he still managed a 76% score composite score against current NFL corners thanks to good shuttle times and a 38” vert.  Arms over 32” if you're into that kind of thing.  Reportedly improved into the 4.4s for his pro-day 40.  Physical profile matches and he’s stingy in red-zone single coverage.  There’s a lot to like here.  I’ve seen him rated over Ward, so this slot may even represent an unrealistic slide.  Panthers need WR help, but I wonder if Ridley is the best bet for Cam.  Newton seems to like throwing to big WRs (catch anything) or blazing-fast WR (wide open), less so anticipation passes.  Would the subtlety of Ridley’s laser routes be lost if the QB lacks that anticipation?  To that end, I could also see Wynn, Hernandez, Miller, or Williams as positive additions to the O-line.  Goedert or Gesicki make sense with Olsen’s broadcast-booth flirtation and the Panthers’ newfound focus on speed.  I hear a lot of people high on Hurst, but he’s old and this round requires a premium in all aspects of value.  HH also produced a sub-50^th percentile SPARQ (47.6).              

1.25           TEN – Isaiah Wynn, T/OG, UGA:  Watch your back Quinton Spain.  I’ve read Wynn has the footwork to stay at tackle despite his lack of NFL OT length.  I don’t doubt it based on the tape I’ve seen.  That said, I’ve got him sliding a bit because teams typically want a sure-fire, well-defined player in the first.  How many years did division rival GM Rick Smith keep his job by hitting rd 1 players?  Back to the point, I think Wynn is an All-Pro guard in the making.  For a team with a mobile QB that has a checkered pro injury history and is as heavily reliant on the run as any team in the league, how do you not stud-out your line?  The rest of the line is set, and Wynn takes it over the top.  The Titans have very good DBs and a decent enough front 7.  But if you want to run over defenses like the Jags and the Texans twice a year, you need major talent up front.  Amaze-balls value pick at 25. 

1.26           ATL – Vita Vea, NT, WAS:  Vea is maybe the prototypical 2-gap space eating nose.  Atlanta’s defense has typically targeted penetrating, up-field disruptors at DT.  This isn’t necessarily an immediate fit at a glance.  But you’re not running the ball through him with a double team.  One might consider that an asset given the Falcons’ 20^th ranked run defensive DVOA (thanks to Football Outsiders advanced metrics) last season.  For anyone not familiar with DVOA it essentially rates all outcomes with points, scores the actual outcome, and then the subsequent rank shows you how good they were against the field (I am majorly dropping into layman’s terms for that explanation).  Pass rush is less his wheel-house, although there is tape showing Vita throwing his man to the ground and moving into the backfield.  Arguments can be made for a WR opposite Julio (Ridley makes more sense, but do they have too much tied up in Sanu, another route-based WR [$6 mil per for the next 3 years])? And the Falcons almost seem fated to never have a true compliment across from Trufant.  We’ve seen this team chew up yards and put a ton of points on the board.  Makes sense to take away the easy yards from opponents’ ground games.           

1.27           NO – Calvin Ridley, WR, BAMA:  I should have saved that Rock quote for this selection.  But Ridley fans arguing him higher still ought to love this spot.  A QB like Brees will maximize what Ridley brings to the table, namely, the most polished routes in the class.  Ridley really ought to go before this… but he underwhelmed at the combine with a 30^th percentile composite SPARQ (if that reference doesn’t mean anything to you, do yourself a favor and hit up 3sigmaathlete.com).  Would be fun to see Sean Payton swapping Ridley and Michael Thomas in and out of the slot to exploit matchups.  Payton has stated a need to add pass catchers in the draft.  I think he’d be happy with Calvin.  Probably makes too much sense to happen. 

1.28           PIT – Rashaan Evans, LB, BAMA:  Evans reminds me a little bit of Lawrence Timmons who started his Pro career in tha ‘Burgh.  Namely that he can drop down to rush from the edge as well as play off the line from at inside LB (his primary position for the Steelers).  This pick is about marrying need, availability, and value.  It just so happens the player fits a mold that has been very successful for the Steelers in the past.  Taven Bryan probably gets a look here too, but he’s a touch far from a finished product.  I think Evans is too good to pass (even with some injury concerns) and will be on the field for significant snaps day 1.  Yinz guys waiving your terrible towels should dig this pick. 

1.29           JAX – Dallas Goedert, TE, SD ST:  Jacksonville has a loaded roster.  Their biggest need, QB, doesn’t really have a player with the requisite talent level to go here, and I don’t expect Coughlin to reach.  The defense is good, and I could see Taven Bryan making sense as a future-piece, allowing the dump of bigger contracts later.  But that same D is an already stout unit.  The Jags recently filled their TE black-hole with Austin Serferian-Jenkins, but he didn’t show the same burst this past season that we saw in college.  Catch and fall down is at least a catch, but long-term ASJ is a questionable asset.  Goedert is a proto-typical mismatch, the big concern with him is the always steep jump from FCS into the NFL.  That said, he doesn’t have to start day one, thanks to ASJ.  Finished school with back-to-back 1,000 yd seasons.  You want small school guys to dominate.  Check.  To boot, Dave Caldwell doesn’t mind taking small-schoolers.  Alternate pick:  Gesicki.         

1.30           MIN – Will Hernandez, OG, UTEP:  Another big boy from a small school in a big state.  Hernandez is a bully in the trenches, erasing interior defenders from running lanes.  Bucky Brooks gave him an A+ in the combine.  Great work ethic, loves the game.  The Vikings just spent insane-o money on Cousins.  One would expect them to protect him.  Minnesota’s O-line and 2^nd CB are really the biggest areas of need on the team, particularly after the signing of Sheldon Richardson to shore up the interior D-line.  Sometimes it isn’t rocket science.  Sometimes you already have a good team and you just need to add a couple more quality guys.  Sometimes the smartest pick is the easy pick. 

1.31           NE – Kolton Miller, OT, UCLA:  The Pats have major need at both tackle spots.  Miller profiles as the kind of player they like protecting the edge.  Towering and a stud athlete.  Miller was 97^th percentile athlete in testing scores against current offensive linemen.  That kind of athleticism at tackle usually goes a lot higher in the draft.  Miller isn’t my personal favorite tackle on the board right now, but I think he’s the closest to what the Pats like at the position.  I was a big fan of Antonio Garcia last year, but blood-clots in his lungs erased his rookie season.  I can’t see the Pats counting on him as a starter year 2.  Ditto an inability to see them counting on LaAdrian Waddle (who lost his job to Cam Fleming [Pats subsequently allowed Fleming to walk after the season]).   

1.32           PHI – Jaire Alexander, CB, LOUISV:  The Cardinals squeak in one more before the end of the round.  I’ve heard that Philly is looking more toward offensive players, but as one of the teams responsible for the most yards ever generated in a Superbowl… let’s just say that stopping the pass is a need.  Jalen Mills’ starting job shouldn’t be taken for granted, and there are rumblings he moves to the slot.  The reigning Champs did acquire Daryl Worley via trade, but keep in mind I have the team that traded him mocked as taking a CB.  Teams don’t typically trade themselves into need, especially when you have the holes that the Panthers do.  Besides need, why Alexander?  91^st percentile tester at the combine, including a 4.38” 40.  While injuries marred his 2017 campaign, he was the top CB in terms of passer-rating allowed when throwing into his coverage at 17.7 (be impressed).  Nice jam at the LOS.